Five reasons why iPad 3 will not be released before the end of 2011

Apple followers everywhere are bombarded with iPad 3 rumors and many would agree they are getting very old. Several blogs are stating the new iPad is coming this fall. Although I am one of those growing tired of all these rumors, I have an urge to share my opinion. Here it is:

The iPad 3 will not be released before the end of 2011. Here are five, what I believe are good reasons, why:

1: Apple finally has enough iPad 2 units in stock.
Up until recently, Apple couldn’t keep up with the demand for the iPad 2. Stores finally have the devices in stock and they are still selling well. Can Apple turn around this quickly and manage the supply issues of a new iPad? Unlikely, especially with the recent information regarding new contracts and changing manufacturers.
2: Large group of consumers finally bought in.
Ever heard of the technology adoption lifecycle? This theory represents a time frame of how quickly people buy into new technology. There are innovators, early adopters, early majority, late majority and the laggards. The iPad 2 convinced many, even the laggards to hop on the iPad bandwagon.
In particular, the baby boomers and older generations jumped on board. This was evident the other day when I visited my local Apple Store and a beginning iPad class was taking place in the center of the store. Every attendee around the table was over the age of 55.

Roger's Bell Curve

It is too soon for these recent iPad converts to change to another new device. They finally entered the Apple empire and the world of mobile technology. It is highly unlikely they are ready for yet another new learning curve.
3: iPad 3 won’t be in time for the holidays worldwide.
Apple generally releases the iPad in the U.S. first and then takes it worldwide one or two months later. In order to capitalize on worldwide holiday sales, Apple would need to release the iPad 3 this September.
Yes, that September release rumor is out, but it’s hard to believe Apple would crowd the iPhone 5 sales potential. (If the early fall iPhone 5 release rumor is true!) If Apple waits until next year, those who would have bought one or the other this fall might now buy both.


4: Upgrade rumor is a Retina display. Is that enough?
We all know the Retina display will look fabulous on an iPad, but is it enough to push those other than the innovators into ditching their iPad 2 for an iPad 3 this soon? I don’t think so. The current iPad display is still very nice.
5: This is the year of the iPad 2
Finally, Steve Jobs said it himself “2011: The year of the iPad 2.” Jobs does not drop a lot of hints, so this one should really be taken seriously.

Sorry to all those who are really excited about the iPad 3. I just don’t think it will happen until early next year.
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